Foreclosure Activity at New High Since the Pandemic Began

Foreclosure starts and bank repossessions are at their highest numbers in the last two years. Most pandemic-initiated moratoriums have lifted by now and lenders are starting to resume foreclosures. Still, foreclosure activity remains well below historical levels.

The number of properties with a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2022 climbed 39% compared to the previous quarter. Foreclosure filings are up much higher—132%—compared to a year ago, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q1 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

“Foreclosure activity has continued to gradually return to normal levels since the expiration of the government’s moratorium, and the CFPB [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s] enhanced mortgage servicing guidelines,” says Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for ATTOM. “But even with the large year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts and bank repossessions, foreclosure activity is still only running at about 57% of where it was in Q1 2020, the last quarter before the government enacted consumer protection programs due to the pandemic.”

Foreclosure starts have increased in all 50 states. The states with the largest number of foreclosure starts in the first quarter included California, Florida, Texas, Illinois, and Ohio. Broken out by metro level, the greatest number of foreclosure starts last quarter were in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia.

Nationwide, Sharga says it’s likely that foreclosure activity will continue to see significant month-over-month and year-over-year gains through the second quarter of 2022. “But [we] still won’t reach historically normal levels of foreclosures until the end of the year at the earliest, unless the U.S. economy takes a significant turn for the worse,” he notes. Source: “U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sets Post Pandemic Highs in First Quarter of 2022,” ATTOM Data Solutions (April 20, 2022)

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Home Buyers’ Top Regrets

About 70% of buyers recently surveyed say they have at least one regret about their homebuying experience, according to the “Buyer and Seller Insights Report for 2022” conducted by HomeLight, a real estate referral company.

The biggest regrets: What they paid for their home and home maintenance.

Twenty-two percent of buyers surveyed said they felt they overpaid for their home. Twenty-two percent also said they underestimated how much maintenance the home required.

About 18% of buyers surveyed also said they underestimated the total cost of owning a home, including the taxes, insurance, etc., the survey shows.

Buyer regret was more common in some locales than others. For example, at least 79% of buyer respondents in Phoenix and several California markets said they had at least one regret, the HomeLight survey shows. In Phoenix, buyers said they wished their home was in a more central location. In the San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento, Calif., buyers were more likely to say they underestimated how much maintenance a home required. Source: “Buyer and Seller Insights Report for 2022,” HomeLight (2022)

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Sellers May Need to Consider Price Drops

Higher mortgage rates may soften demand this spring as worsening affordability prices more buyers out of the market. With mortgage applications down 6% from a year ago, sellers may need to be more realistic about how much they can ask for their property. An increasing number of listings are experiencing price reductions, climbing at the fastest pace since at least 2015, according to a new Redfin survey. Still, only 3.2% of homes on the market are seeing price drops.

“There really is a limit to homebuyer demand, even though the market over the past few years has made it seem endless,” says Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “The sharp increase in mortgage rates is pushing more home buyers out of the market, but it also appears to be discouraging some homeowners from selling. With demand and supply both slipping, the market isn’t likely to flip from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market any time soon.”

The National Association of REALTORS® has forecast home sales to slip 10% in 2022, mostly due to rising mortgage rates that are pricing out more would-be buyers. However, NAR still predicts home prices to rise by 5% this year.

For first-time home buyers, the cost of buying the same home this year compared to just one year ago has jumped by 40%—a combined impact of higher home prices and mortgage rates. “There will be an inevitable slowdown in home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, recently said in a statement. “Keep an eye on days-on-market and a decrease in multiple offers. Home sellers should not expect big, easy profit gains.”

Even with some early signs of cooling, the housing market remains elevated. Homes are selling at some of the fastest speeds ever, and price escalations on asking prices are still common, Redfin reports. Forty-five percent of homes that went under contract found a buyer within a week. Also, the average home sold for 2.4% above its asking price, Redfin notes. Source: “Housing Market Update: Demand Slips, Pushing More Sellers to Drop Asking Prices,” Redfin (April 14, 2022) and “Instant Reaction: Jobs, April 1, 2022,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook blog

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Buyers Making Compromises to Find a Suitable Home

Over the past year, home buyers have faced steep competition, which has included fierce bidding wars. Inventory shortages and high demand have forced them to rethink their priorities when shopping for a home.

Eighty percent of buyers say they’ve had to compromise on key home features, according to the Buyer and Seller Insights Report for 2022, produced by HomeLight, a real estate referral company. The most common compromise centered on costs: Forty-eight percent of buyers say they paid more for their homes than they initially expected, the report shows. Thirty-one percent of buyers say they purchased an older home than they initially wanted, and 23% purchased a home that was in worse condition than they hoped.

Buyers in some markets have to compromise more than those in other areas due to varying levels of competition. For example, at least 90% of buyers in markets like San Francisco, Denver, and Sacramento, Calif., say they had to make at least one compromise on the home they purchased. By comparison, 85% of buyers in Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, and Austin, Texas, say they made a compromise.

While compromises are the norm in a seller’s market, buyers also are finding obstacles while preparing to purchase a home. Affordability is the top challenge home buyers face in the current market, according to the 2022 Obstacles to Home Buying, a new study released by the National Association of REALTORS® and Morning Consult. Finding homes that fit buyers’ criteria, competing with multiple offers, and saving for a down payment also are commonly cited challenges. Homebuying obstacles, however, can vary by race and ethnicity, the study finds. Source: “Buyer and Seller Insights Report for 2022,” HomeLight (2022)

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First-Time Buyers Still Want a Bathtub

Bathroom remodeling trends in recent years have focused on removing the bathtub and supersizing the shower. But that could actually hurt a property’s resale value, depending on the buyers you’re trying to attract.

Bathroom Remodeling Trends Focus on Spa-Like Upgrades

First-time home buyers say they want a shower-tub combo, ranking it highest among 18 bathroom features, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ What Home Buyers Really Want, 2021 Edition. The study asked first-time buyers to rate key home features, from “essential” to “do not want.”

Forty-two percent of first-time buyers surveyed call a home with both a shower stall and bathtub in the primary bath desirable; 30% called it essential and a must-have, according to the survey. They also ranked linen closets and a private toilet compartment in the primary bath to be important in their home search.

Source: “In the Bath, First-Time Buyers Really Want Both a Shower & Tub,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (March 30, 2022)

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Property Taxes Rising at Slower Pace

The average property tax on a single-family home in 2021 rose at the smallest pace in five years. Taxes rose by 1.8% last year, from $3,719 in 2020 to $3,785 in 2021 nationwide, according to a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions, a real estate data firm.

“It’s hardly a surprise that property taxes increased in 2021, a year when home prices across the country rose by 16%,” says Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “In fact, the real surprise is that tax increases weren’t higher, which suggests that tax assessments are lagging behind rising property values, and will likely continue to go up in 2022.”

The report shows that effective rates dropped last year even as total taxes went up, as home values increased significantly faster than taxes nationwide. Source: ATTOM Data Solutions

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Inflation Edges Higher, Affecting Housing

The rate of inflation reached 8.5% in March, continuing at a 40-year high and showing few signs of relief for consumers. Higher gas prices, food, and housing costs fueled the consumer price index’s jump.

“Aggressive inflation will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple rounds this year and actively pursue quantitative tightening,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. “That is why mortgage rates recently have shot up so high. Higher mortgage rates will inevitably pull home sales down in the coming months and slow home price appreciation.”

Yun projects a 10% decrease in home sales this year. But he continues to say home prices will increase, gaining 5% by the end of the year.

The rising costs of living will likely hurt more Americans’ wallets. Rising prices are outstripping the fastest wage gains in four decades, MarketWatch reports. Surveys show consumers are increasingly concerned about inflation as well.

Gas prices are up 48% from a year ago. The price hikes account for more than half of the increase last month in the cost of living. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has driven up the price of oil to a 13-year high. That has a widespread impact on consumers, not just because of the increasing costs of driving but also flying and transporting goods.

Grocery prices have increased 10% in the past year, the largest jump since 1981, MarketWatch reports.

Also, the cost of rent and shelter costs are rising. Over the last year, the cost of shelter has increased 5%, marking the largest increase in four decades, MarketWatch reports. Housing costs tend to comprise about a third or more of a typical household budget.

Rents rose by 4.4%, but many other data sources have pointed to even higher increases, Yun says.

“Home price is not part of the consumer price index but has hurt first-time buyers, especially with rising mortgage rates,” Yun says. “Clearly, more construction of both apartments and single-family homes is needed.” Source: “Instant Reaction: Inflation, April 12, 2022,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook blog and “U.S. Inflation Rate Leaps to 8.5%, CPI Shows, as Higher Gas Prices Slam Consumers,” MarketWatch (April 12, 2022)

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Realtor.com® Aims to ‘Close the Gap’ in Homeownership

Homeownership rates for many minority groups continues to be well below that of whites, and discriminatory policies are often blamed for that. During National Fair Housing Month in April, many housing groups and organizations are bringing the racial housing gap to the forefront and asking others in the real estate industry to support programs that seek to make a change.

Realtor.com® announced it is teaming with the Homeownership Council of America to donate the first $100,000 to the new Equity Down Payment Assistance Fund, for people of color and low- to moderate-income buyers. Realtor.com® says it will match every donation by HCA’s Equity DPA fund through June 30, up to $100,000. It’s asking leaders in the real estate industry to donate to HCA’s Equity DPA fund to help minorities and low- to moderate-income consumers afford down payments and closing costs.

“Survey data shows having enough for a down payment is one of the largest barriers to homeownership and, with this fund, we can directly help people break through to start building generational wealth,” says Mickey Neuberger, chief marketing officer for Realtor.com®.

The homeownership rate for Blacks is 43.1%, 48.4% for Hispanics, and 61.2% for Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. The ownership rate for Whites is 74.4%, realtor.com® says.

“We believe it’s our responsibility to not only address [the] disparity in homeownership but bring others alongside to take up the challenge,” Neuberger says. “As a company, we strive to make a positive impact on fair housing issues, but as an industry, we have the power to eliminate it.”

Realtor.com® has launched its Closing the Gap Challenge focused on increasing the homeownership rate of racial minorities. Other initiatives in the program include a new down payment assistance search tool where consumers can see if they’re eligible for programs, a down payment assistance guide, and a free First-Time Homebuying 101 e-book offered in both English and Spanish, among other programs.

Companies that want to participate in the Closing the Gap Challenge can complete an inquiry form at homeownershipcouncil.org/equitydpa. Source: realtor.com®

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Sellers Are Lowering Asking Prices

With mortgage rates now nearing 5%, many aspiring home buyers may have reached the top of what they can afford, especially as 40-year-high inflation affects the threshold for them.

As a result, the number of sellers dropping their asking price is growing at a faster clip than in the recent past. About 12% of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, according to Redfin. That marks a jump from 9% a year ago.

“Price drops are still rare, but the fact that they are becoming more frequent is one clear sign that the housing market is cooling,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “It goes to show that there’s a limit to sellers’ power. There is still way more demand than supply, and buyers are still sweating, but sellers can no longer overprice their home and still expect buyers to clamor at their door.”

‘There May Be a Limit to Sellers’ Power’

Rising Rates Constrain Buyers’ Budgets

Home prices are well above levels from a year ago. The average borrower is paying about 40% more than they would have for the same home a year ago on a monthly payment due to higher mortgage rates and higher home prices, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

More consumers believe that mortgage rates and home prices will rise further, according to a monthly consumer sentiment index from Fannie Mae. “If consumer pessimism toward homebuying conditions continues, and the recent mortgage rate increases are sustained, then we expect to see an even greater cooling of the housing market than previously forecast,” Mark Palim, vice president and deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, wrote about the consumer sentiment index’s findings.

However, some buyers may see an opening in the market. They may want to rush ahead of further mortgage rate increases or may see an uptick in new listings.

Housing demand remains high, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of REALTORS®, writes on the association’s blog. Plus, a severe housing shortage due to underbuilding over the last decade will cushion the housing market from rapid deceleration.

“Housing demand will remain strong due to favorable demographics and shifts in buyers’ preferences as teleworking remains in place,” Evangelou writes. Source: “Rising Mortgage Rates Are Causing More Home Sellers to Lower Their Asking Prices,” CNBC (April 7, 2022)

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