False Housing Recovery or for Real This Time?
False Housing Recovery or for Real This Time?
False Housing Recovery or for Real This Time?
Deutsche Bank says that there have been seven false housing recovery reports with the housing market in the last six years. But housing analysts and economists are more optimistic that this time around a residential housing recovery will finally stick.
The signs analysts point to for a false housing recovery:
- Stocks of home building companies are rising and even doubling in the last nine months.
- Falling inventories of for-sale homes—both new and existing homes—have caused a shortage in the market and sparked higher demand.
- Home prices have appeared to bottom out in many areas and are gradually starting to reverse course and rise.
- And the increased costs of renting has made more Americans see housing as a better deal.
Housing experts also turn to a case in Delray Beach, Fla., as another recent example of a turnaround. Home buyers started lining up at 6 a.m. to buy one of the 44 homes that were for-sale that weekend.
Still, economists and housing analysts say they have concerns about a false housing recovery, such as that elevated numbers of foreclosures will soon hit the market and cause prices to fall again. But, they say, as long as the foreclosures come on the market gradually and not all at once, they believe the housing market—and home prices—can sustain the recovery.
Source: “Buying into a Housing Comeback,” Fortune (July 2012)
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